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Price Shopping

Market MechanicsLevel 2 — Informed

Prerequisites

Vig Accounting & Profitability MathSportsbook Selection

Unlocks

Information Decay & Line MovementMarket Structure & Efficiency

What It Is

Comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks to get the best available price on every bet, and timing bets to capture optimal value before lines move.

Correct Execution

Before every bet, you check 3+ books for the best price. You understand the tradeoff between betting early (better price, higher vig) vs. game day (lower vig, potentially moved line). You walk away when the price has moved past your value threshold.

Progression Levels

Diagnostic Tree

Coaching Cues

  • "The better the odds you are getting on each bet, the less you have to win in order to hit profitability." — core principle, Ted Knutson
  • "Keep an eye on that price — if it gets to be like .81 when the vig drops, I would hop in the pool." — patience with trigger prices, Ted Knutson
  • "Just because we've picked a team to bet on at the odds listed here doesn't mean they'll be good value at all bookies. Do some price shopping." — Ted Knutson

Common Errors

  1. Not checking multiple books: Leaving 0.25-0.5 of odds on the table per bet → compounds to thousands over a season → Always check 3+ books
  2. Betting at published price without verifying: Lines move between research and publication → "The line has moved between the bet being placed and publishing time" → Always verify current price
  3. Ignoring quarter-goal differences: +1.5 vs +1.75 "dramatically changes required win rate for profitability" → Every fraction matters → Set precise cutoffs

Edges

🔑 Hidden Causal Lever

The Vig Distribution Is Market Intelligence

market-mechanicsprice-shopping →

When vig is heavily skewed to one side of a line (-127/+109 vs. neutral -105/-105), the skew itself tells you where sharp money has already landed. A bet that's +EV at neutral vig may have its edge already captured via the bookmaker's vig adjustment. Reading the vig shape is reading the market's real opinion.

What most people do
Ignore vig distribution between sides of the same line. Just look for "best odds."
What the best do
Read the vig distribution as intelligence. A heavily lopsided vig reveals where the book expects sharp action and where they've already adjusted.
Why it's an edge: The shape of the vig is the book's actual opinion on the match, separate from the handicap. It distinguishes "the line is wrong" from "the line was wrong but has already been corrected via vig adjustment."
How to exploit: Before betting, check vig on both sides. If your side carries disproportionate vig, the market has already moved your way — the value may be gone.
"If the vig were flipped here, I'd hop on Bristol City. As it is, it's not a bet we can make." — Ted Knutson, multiple files

Sources

  • Ted Knutson, "Let's Teach, 2025 Edition" — price shopping principle, multiple accounts
  • Ted Knutson, "EPL + Friday Champ 26Sep2025" — timing tradeoff (early vs. game-day compression)
  • Ted Knutson, "Tuesday Dec 10 2024" — lifestyle constraints on optimal pricing
  • Harry Crane, Foundations of Sports Betting (2024-07-21) — arbitrage detection formulas
  • Joseph Buchdahl (via BettingAnalyst), Value Betting Strategy (2021-08-29) — Pinnacle 99.4% benchmark, de-vig methodology