Evaluating how a coaching change alters a team's expected performance — when to throw out model numbers, when to expect a "new manager bump," and when a coaching change will make things worse.
You recognize that coaching changes invalidate recent model data. You revert to prior baselines or squad quality assessments rather than trusting season metrics from the old regime. You evaluate coaching style compatibility with the squad. You know that some changes produce immediate impact while others take weeks.
When a coaching change swaps in a manager whose system is fundamentally incompatible with the squad built for the predecessor, 4-8 weeks of predictable underperformance follows. This isn't generic "transition difficulty" — it's a specific mechanic: players trained in one system physically cannot execute an opposite one without retraining. The fade has a predictable duration based on tactical distance.
When a strong-performing team fires its coach, bookmakers immediately slash ratings. But actual performance under a new coach often reverts to squad quality, not to zero. The exploitable window is betting the team at deflated odds during the immediate post-sacking panic, before metrics stabilize.