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Pixel-Level Field Value Calculation

Expected Value ModelsLevel 4 — Expert

What It Is

Rather than computing EPV only at the ball's location, pixel-level field value calculates the EPV of every location on the pitch simultaneously — creating a full-field value map at every moment. This shows not just where the ball is valuable, but where it would be valuable if played there — enabling identification of open spaces, optimal passing targets, and dangerous unoccupied areas. The output is a heatmap where red indicates high-value locations and blue indicates low-value locations, recomputed every fraction of a second.

Correct Execution

Pixel-level computation: for each pitch location, estimate EPV under the assumption that a possession is currently there, conditioned on the current defensive and offensive player positions. Key technical requirement: tracking data at high frequency (25Hz or better). The computation is expensive — typically pre-computed for specific possession frames rather than continuously. The resulting maps are most useful for: (1) showing optimal passing targets; (2) identifying off-ball spaces created by player movement; (3) coaching visual aid showing where value exists on the field.

Progression Levels

Diagnostic Tree

Coaching Cues

  • "The field value map shows where the game is being played and where it could be played." — Javier Fernandez, 2019
  • "Red means opportunity. If red is where your players aren't, that's the coaching point."

Common Errors

  1. Computing field value without conditioning on opponent positions: A high-value location changes as defenders shift; the value map must be dynamic, not static.
  2. Using event data instead of tracking data: Pixel-level computation requires continuous position data; event data only gives locations at discrete action moments.

Sources

  • Javier Fernandez, FC Barcelona, StatsBomb Innovation in Football Conference 2019, YouTube, 2019-10-22 — showed pixel-level field value maps changing in real-time as players moved; described computation as integrating over all possible pass destinations at every pitch location; demonstrated with live possession video overlay