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Pitch-Control-Adjusted Recovery

Tactical AnalysisLevel 4 — Expert

What It Is

Extends ball recovery probability by incorporating spatial pitch-control features from 360 data — average team control near the ball, transition probabilities, and most-relevant-player control areas — to capture how defensive positioning affects likelihood of winning the ball back. The difference between the pitch-control-adjusted prediction and the baseline prediction isolates the positioning contribution to defensive recovery.

Correct Execution

Add 360-derived features: Voronoi-based pitch control around the ball, control by nearest defender, control by most relevant pressing player. The "Pre-Recovery PC" model includes these; the baseline "Pre-Recovery" model does not. The difference = positioning contribution.

Sources

  • Ricardo Furbino, Federal University of Minas Gerais, StatsBomb Conference 2022, YouTube, 2022-10-05